PSS-CCS

While CCS seems to be a viable option from a technical, geological and economic point of view, the critical question that remains is how and at which cost CCS can be implemented at a large scale in the near future. It is indeed true that a bloom of CCS-projects is not simply guaranteed by sufficient total storage capacity, costs-effectiveness, and fast technical advance in especially capture technology. In order for CCS to develop, it will also need to be a profitable business. The price of CO₂ on the CO₂-market (e.g. emission trading system), that will reflect the socio-political decisions made, will be an essential parameter in the profitability evaluation.

This item has never been discussed in detail. Nevertheless it is essential to know, both for the industry (long term planning for major investments) and the government (climate policy), under which scenarios CCS has a future. The project’s main objective is to design a simulator that makes it possible to evaluate on an economic basis whether CCS will become important in Belgium before 2050. The input parameters of the model are predefined parameters, future scenarios and uncertainties on the data. The latter will be dealt with using a Monte-Carlo approach, while sensitivity analysis will be carried out on all essential parameters. The risk assessment regarding CO₂-leakage and safety of the reservoir will be an important part of the sink assessment. This approach will result in a simulator that acts as a Policy Support System (PSS), being able to integrate different international contexts and national top-down decisions. Items such as technological advances are essential PSS-input parameters and will be evaluated in detail, including the effects of stimulation of the research actions. The results may have direct implications on national climate policy and provide scientifically backed standpoints in international post-Kyoto negotiations.

This project necessitates the close cooperation of the Belgian research institutes that actively work on CCS: GSB (Geological Survey of Belgium), VITO (Flemish Institute of Technological Research), ULg (Université de Liège) and FPMs (Faculté Polytechnique de Mons). The expertise of these partners covers the whole CCS-chain, from source over transport to sink, both on technical and on socio-economical levels. The participation of subcontractor Ecofys is required to fulfil additional data needs. The project will be highly interdisciplinary, involving different fields of geology, eco-toxicology, economy, engineering, geographical information systems and social geography. The project partners will develop the Policy Support System by integrating a multiple sink-source model in a grid based geographical information system for Belgium, with the surrounding EU-countries as an international boundary condition. The architecture of the software tool will be highly modular, as it will be a translation of the gathered expertise into algorithms. These will be arranged in a network that will sequentially process a set of input parameters. Each set will reflect a specific socio-economic future scenario, including uncertainties regarding the technical parameters. The result of these calculations will be parameters that will automatically be evaluated using economic risk-profit balances. This will make it possible for the simulator to identify which CCS-projects become profitable. These simulations will be run on a year-by-year basis, making it possible to predict the implementation rate of CCS under different socio-economic situations.

Developing this simulator will involve high-end innovative research, while the Policy Support System itself will be the first of its kind in the world.