While Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) seems to be a viable option from a technical, geological and economic point of view, the critical question that remains is how and at which cost CCS can be implemented at a large scale in the near future. It is indeed true that a bloom of CCS-projects is not simply guaranteed by sufficient total storage capacity, costs-effectiveness, and fast technical advance in especially capture technology. In order for CCS to develop, it will also need to be a profitable business. The price of CO2 on the CO2-market (e.g. emission trading system), that will reflect the socio-political decisions made, will be an essential parameter in the profitability evaluation.
Policy related research on CCS in Belgium has been centralised in the PSS-CCS projects (Policy SupportSystem for Carbon Capture and Storage). Phase one (PSS-CCS I) started at the end of 2005 and the results were integrally published in 2009 (Piessens et al., 2009). This work was continued in the projects PSS-CCS II, the actual phase two, and the international valorisation project PSS-CCS BeNe which extended the scope to the Netherlands and created official bridges between the national CCS projects in Belgium and the Netherlands (CATO-2). PSS-CCS II & BeNe results are published and expected in 2012.
PSS-CCS I
PSS-CCS I main objective was to design a techno-economic simulator that makes it possible to evaluate on an economic basis whether CCS will become important in Belgium before 2050. The input parameters of the model are predefined parameters, future scenarios and uncertainties on the data. The latter were dealt with a Monte-Carlo (MC) approach, while sensitivity analysis were carried out on all essential parameters. The risk assessment regarding CO2-leakage and safety of the reservoir are an important part of the sink assessment. This approach resulted in a simulator that acts as a PolicySupport System (PSS), being able to integrate different international contexts and national top-down decisions. Items such as technological advances are essential PSS-input parameters and were evaluated in detail, including the effects of stimulation of the research actions.
Where PSS-CCS phase 1 came to an end in 2008 it offered us a full database on the actual sources, a technology description and database on future CCS relevant technologies for the power sector, a methodology and implementation for pipeline economics, an overview of the storage potential for Belgium, an evaluation of the economics of CO2 storage, an evaluation of CCS technology using Markal, and the development of the ad-hoc CCS simulator PSS I.
The results of the PSS I simulator delivered a few essential insights in the CCS process which have influenced the European CCS-guidelines. The test runs that were performed, indicated the usefulness of further developments on a few specific topics.
PSS-CCS II & BeNe
PSS-CCS II is a follow-up project of PSS-CCS I aiming to update the datasets already available and extending these with descriptive data on the capture potential and technologies in different industrial sectors. The geological database has been further completed especially with information on coal related storage scenarios in the Walloon Region. Capture of CO2 in the power sector is retaken and update, and particular attention is given to how capture technologies can be integrated in other industrial production processes. Production technologies for the industrial sectors of cement, iron and steel, hydrogen, ammonia, refineries and industrial boilers are outlined making this project a reference for the capture of CO2 from industrial sources. The risk perception of geological storage, crucial in any actual CCS project, was indirectly covered by evaluating the monitoring technologies for in particular coal bearing sequences.
Important changes were made to the PSS simulator, including the introduction of a new investment decision scheme allowing much more realistic projections of the implementation of CCS technology. Cost estimates of those technologies are provided where possible, often indicating that capture can be more cost efficient compared to the power sector (e.g. steel, hydrogen...). Pipeline transport costs of CO2 are calibrated against industry data, and the PSS II simulator is now able to construct realistic pipeline networks.
Together with the important data collection and improvements, the current version (PSS II) was updated significantly for making close-to optimal investment decisions to produce realistic and reliable forecasts on power production technologies based on coal, natural gas and biomass, as well as for the iron & steel sector. PSS II is used in parallel with TIMES-BE, using largely the same databases to valorise the results.
The international dimension was emphasised through the PSS-CCS BeNe project, which allowed through the Cato-2 project to include the Dutch storage options in a very direct and detailed way in the model.
The PSS-CCS II & BeNe projects ended in 2011. The project's final report will be available online after the review process.
